Short was the Play

Still more than 30 minutes left in the trading day, but it's clear that the short side was the safest bet today.  Following are my trades and a picture of the intraday action.  Note that the day's results might have been considerably less since the intraday peak at 2 pm missed my stop by one tick!  By that point, I'd already banked $675 and had moved my stop to breakeven.  Sometimes, one tick is all it takes...today, we're one tick to the good...other days it works out the other way.

ES

• Short 15 @ 1332.25
• Cover 5  @ 1331.00 + $250
• Short 5  @ 1332.75
• Short 2  @ 1331.25
• Cover 2  @ 1330.25 + $200
• Short 2  @ 1331.75
• Cover 2 @ 1330.00 + $225
• Cover 9 @ 1326.25 + $2,762.50
• Cover 3 @ 1325.75 +$925
• Cover 3 @ 1324.50 +$1,112.50

--- Total for the day: $5,475 ---

I'll post once more after the close so that we can see how the VIX ended the day.

Reversal Day in the Making?

Some interesting things to note (as my ES limit orders have been filled at 1332.25) which to me implies that the possibility exists for a reversal day today.

The VIX has broken support, but ES has not yet cleared resistance.
(Admittedly, ES is not the same thing as SPX, and while both SPX and the Dow have moved above resistance in the first hour of trading...I'm still skeptical.)

Regardless of my sense for the potential for a reversal day today, I will be taking partial profits on ES to reduce risk and offset the possible loss if I'm wrong and get stopped out.

Bonds Testing Support

With equities now testing resistance, it's notable that bonds are likewise ready to test support.  My guess is that both will hold, at least on the first attempt.  What happens after that will be an indicator of what the market anticipates for the US throughout the rest of 2011...

Test Today

Looks like that test of 1332 is coming today courtesy of the optimistic reaction to the improved headline unemployment number (declined to 8.8%).