The Money Masters

This is an excellent documentary that details in understandable terms

how our present fiat system was established.

Warning:

This video is more than three hours long!

It'll be in the archives, so come back and watch it a little at a time.

Important Report Alert!

Friday morning the government reports non-farm payrolls (employment) report for the month of January.  This is considered one of the most significant reports of the month, and this one may have particular import to the thinking of the Fed, potentially reflected in upcoming policy decisions.

Here are a few relevant snippets:

While the official figure expected for tomorrow’s  Non-farm payroll report is for a print of around 130K, anything above 170K could help the USD’s position. Such a reading would mean that the labor market is in fact thawing, and the positive US data can finally be seen impacting hiring.

While tomorrow’s data, if stronger than expected, could increase speculation about tighter monetary policy.

If we meet expectations, then the dynamic that we have currently – with the USD weaker during times of risk appetite – will continue.

If payrolls come in weaker than expected 50K or below, then we are in a whole different ball game, and its looks like the Fed may in fact start debating if even more quantitative easing is needed. That would doom the USD to weakness for the rest of the year. The other data we have been seeing tells us that this 3rd scenario is least likely.

Article 

ADP always reports the day before the government, and today's report showed an increase:

 

Rounded Tops

Long term tops are rarely abrupt.  They typically take some time to build and consequently form a somewhat rounded pattern.  The gray line above is a fibonacci arc which may provide a roadmap for the next couple of weeks.

Likely support levels are identified in red.  The immediate minor support level has already been breached in today's trading.

The gray dashed line on top is a long term resistance level seen in the following monthly view:

The S&P has already come within about ten points of this long term resistance line.  I think this level will be tested a few times as the top is established.