Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Danger!

Technically speaking, the USD is at a critical level right now.  The following analysis is from Stocktiming.com:
Will the U.S. Dollar get into trouble? 
There was a CNBC article this morning with this headline:  "Dollar Losing Safe Haven Appeal".
A quick look at today's chart shows that the Dollar has NOT vanished in terms of global perceived value.  However, you can see that the Dollar is now at a "critical juncture" because it is sitting on and testing a 3 year support. 
Since 2008, the Dollar has rallied every time it has hit this support line.  
This time, holding at the support line test will be a difficult task because the Dollar's (daily) Relative Strength fell to 40.9 at the close yesterday (50 is Neutral).   
This is not your typical Dollar test, because if it breaks to the downside now, it will signify a loss of confidence and preference for the U.S. Dollar.
 

Treading Water

The markets continue to dance around the key level of SPX 1320.  There may be another attempt at new highs above 1350, or maybe we're already constrained by an intermediate down channel...either way, the answer to that should be more clear soon.